SC Farense – Feirense

Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.16	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.74	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.27	−8.3%
Betfair (net)	5.94	+3.4%
bet365	5.00	−13.0%

€23 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-14 min	8 min	+4.3%	€219	5.94	+3.4%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.16	5.74	5.94	5.00	8
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.33	4.00	3.66	3.50	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.18	1.74	1.68	1.61	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.47	2.23	2.12	2.05	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.41	1.81	1.70	1.62	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	8.32	4.33	4.04	3.75	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.14	1.30	1.28	1.22	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.58	3.52	3.19	3.00	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.22	1.40	1.38	1.33	0
Both teams to score · No	1.53	1.84	1.77	1.62	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.88	2.19	2.06	2.05	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.