SC Farense vs Feirense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · 15:00 CET
WDLDW
LLLLLThe score model makes an SC Farense win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 29%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 70.9% vs 55.9% implied (+15.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SC Farense 1.15 – 0.73 Feirense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Farense win | 46.1% | 49.4% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.7% | +2.3% |
| Feirense win | 23.9% | 22.8% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.1% | 44.1% | -15.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.2% | 24.2% | -12.0% |
| Both teams to score | 34.9% | 48.1% | -13.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.0% | 29.9% | -11.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SC Farense 29.8 / Feirense 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.