Famalicao – Alverca

Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · full time 1-4 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.82	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.36	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.23	−3.8%
Betfair (net)	3.28	−2.3%
bet365	3.25	−3.2%

€30 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.39	4.64	4.42	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.82	3.36	3.28	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.81	2.06	1.97	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.68	2.18	2.07	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.60	1.85	1.83	1.68
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.62	4.03	3.75	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.22	1.33	1.32	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.24	3.42	3.04	2.75
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.31	1.41	1.41	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.65	2.07	2.03	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.55	1.93	1.85	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.