Famalicao vs Alverca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-12 · 21:15 CET
LDDDW
LDLWWThe score model makes a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 60.5% vs 50.4% implied (+10.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Famalicao 1.46 – 0.72 Alverca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 54.9% | 51.3% | +3.6% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.2% | -0.2% |
| Alverca win | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 46.5% | -9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 26.4% | -8.7% |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 49.6% | -10.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 32.3% | -9.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Famalicao 26.9 / Alverca 26.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.