Puszcza – Polonia Bytom

Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.45	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.65	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.54	−4.3%
Betfair (net)	2.60	−2.1%
bet365	2.35	−11.4%

€102 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.08	2.83	2.69	2.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.75	3.71	3.42	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.45	2.65	2.60	2.35
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.85	2.15	2.02	1.98
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.17	1.87	1.84	1.73
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.16	4.03	3.66	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.46	1.33	1.31	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.47	3.54	3.04	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.68	1.39	1.41	1.33
Both teams to score · No	2.39	2.09	2.08	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.72	1.92	1.78	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.