Puszcza vs Polonia Bytom
Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-11 · 17:00 CET
LWLLL
DDDDWThe score model made a Puszcza win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puszcza 1.51 – 1.33 Polonia Bytom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza win | 40.8% | 36.4% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Polonia Bytom win | 32.5% | 35.3% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 46.9% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 26.9% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 53.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 32.8% | +7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Puszcza 29.1 / Polonia Bytom 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.