Nafta – Bravo

Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.56	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.75	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.53	−5.7%
Betfair (net)	3.66	−2.3%
bet365	3.50	−6.5%

€3 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.30	2.66	2.44	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.56	3.75	3.66	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.53	2.80	2.63	2.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.93	1.73	1.68	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.07	2.37	2.26	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.38	2.85	2.71	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.42	1.54	1.49	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.13	2.67	2.46	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.47	1.60	1.57	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.30	2.76	2.42	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.77	1.57	1.59	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.