Nafta vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-11 · 15:00 CET
LLWWL
WDDWWThe score model makes a Bravo win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bravo win — 43.5% vs 36.3% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 1.22 – 1.55 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 28.2% | 37.5% | -9.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.2% | +2.1% |
| Bravo win | 43.5% | 36.3% | +7.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 55.7% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 35.3% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 59.4% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 38.4% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nafta 21.4 / Bravo 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.