Grosuplje – Maribor

Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.99	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.13	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.70	−8.4%
Betfair (net)	4.80	−6.5%
bet365	—	—

€53 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.80	1.79	1.73	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.08	4.03	3.85	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.99	5.13	4.80	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.71	1.88	1.81	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.40	2.14	2.08	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.78	3.21	3.09	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.56	1.45	1.42	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.68	2.92	2.69	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.60	1.52	1.50	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.40	2.15	2.06	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.71	1.87	1.79	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.