Grosuplje vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-11 · 17:30 CET
WLLLW
WDDWDThe score model makes a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 58.8% vs 52.8% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grosuplje 1.11 – 1.94 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grosuplje win | 20.1% | 19.0% | +1.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.3% | +1.4% |
| Maribor win | 55.2% | 57.7% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 54.4% | +4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 33.8% | +2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 52.8% | +6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 37.4% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grosuplje 10.1 / Maribor 48.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.