Partizan – Novi Pazar

Serbia, Serbia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.49	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.10	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.43	−13.2%
Betfair (net)	5.08	−0.3%
bet365	4.10	−19.6%

€249 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-53 min	8 min	+3.2%	€9	5.28	+3.4%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.96	7.91	7.27	6.00	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.49	5.10	5.08	4.10	8
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.64	1.48	1.42	1.41	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.57	1.48	1.46	1.41	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.76	3.07	2.84	2.62	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.40	2.24	2.17	1.96	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.72	1.81	1.74	1.68	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.31	2.26	2.12	2.10	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.76	1.79	1.75	1.63	0
Both teams to score · No	2.53	2.41	2.25	2.15	0
Both teams to score · Yes	1.66	1.71	1.69	1.57	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.