Partizan vs Novi Pazar
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-10-11 · 17:00 CET
WLLDW
DWDDLThe score model made a Partizan win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partizan 2.19 – 1.10 Novi Pazar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizan win | 61.0% | 64.0% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 20.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Novi Pazar win | 16.8% | 15.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 64.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 44.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 58.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 44.6% | -1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Partizan 43.8 / Novi Pazar 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.