Ogre United – BFC Daugavpils

Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.92	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.84	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.77	−3.7%
Betfair (net)	1.79	−3.0%
bet365	1.67	−9.4%

€141 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.92	1.84	1.79	1.67
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.18	4.32	4.04	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.17	4.43	4.23	3.70
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.84	1.61	1.59	1.54
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.18	2.63	2.48	2.35
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.14	2.63	2.48	2.37
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.47	1.61	1.59	1.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.21	2.49	2.35	2.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.67	1.64	1.54
Both teams to score · No	2.24	2.68	2.46	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.81	1.60	1.59	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.