Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 CET
LLDLW
DLDLDThe score model makes a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BFC Daugavpils win — 52.1% vs 48.1% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ogre United 1.11 – 1.74 BFC Daugavpils.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United win | 23.9% | 26.6% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.4% | -1.4% |
| BFC Daugavpils win | 52.1% | 48.1% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ogre United 24.9 / BFC Daugavpils 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.