Chiba – V-Varen Nagasaki

J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 05:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.62	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.92	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.83	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	2.79	−4.6%
bet365	2.65	−9.3%

€219 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.62	2.92	2.79	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.75	3.40	3.23	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.45	2.75	2.63	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.65	2.18	2.08	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.55	1.85	1.80	1.68
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.60	4.01	3.80	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.62	1.33	1.30	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.55	3.53	3.23	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.64	1.40	1.40	1.33
Both teams to score · No	2.59	2.12	2.04	1.91
Both teams to score · Yes	1.63	1.89	1.81	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.