Chiba vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · 07:00 CET
LLWDL
LDLWDThe score model makes a Chiba win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 60.8% vs 49.9% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chiba 1.58 – 1.56 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiba win | 40.1% | 34.7% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 21.0% | 28.0% | -7.0% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 38.9% | 37.3% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 49.9% | +10.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 29.2% | +9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 55.1% | +6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 34.2% | +4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chiba 16.6 / V-Varen Nagasaki 17.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.