Mito – Shimizu S-Pulse

J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 06:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.76	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.50	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.43	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	2.42	−2.9%
bet365	2.30	−7.9%

€175 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.76	2.50	2.42	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.21	3.26	3.09	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.50	3.41	3.23	3.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.18	2.64	2.43	2.32
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.85	1.61	1.61	1.49
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.09	5.34	4.95	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.32	1.23	1.22	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.35	3.80	3.71	3.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.43	1.36	1.31	1.25
Both teams to score · No	1.98	1.84	1.85	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.02	2.19	2.01	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.