Mito vs Shimizu S-Pulse
J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · 08:00 CET
DWDLL
LDLWWThe score model makes a Mito win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 50.4% vs 45.8% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mito 1.29 – 1.23 Shimizu S-Pulse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mito win | 39.5% | 35.3% | +4.3% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 28.5% | -4.9% |
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 36.8% | 36.2% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 48.1% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 28.0% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 54.2% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.2% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mito 13.1 / Shimizu S-Pulse 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.