Flora – Levadia

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 1-3 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.38	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.13	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.60	−10.3%
Betfair (net)	4.99	−2.7%
bet365	6.25	+21.8%

€65 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.03	1.62	1.60	1.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.71	5.30	4.71	4.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.38	5.13	4.99	6.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.90	2.06	1.99	1.87
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.53	1.94	1.85	1.77
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.46	2.13	1.97	1.87
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.69	1.89	1.87	1.77
Both teams to score · No	2.34	2.79	2.71	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.75	1.56	1.49	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.