Narva – Kuressaare

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.33	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.04	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.95	−4.2%
Betfair (net)	1.95	−4.3%
bet365	1.86	−8.7%

€159 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.04	3.84	3.75	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.14	4.02	3.75	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.33	2.04	1.95	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.21	1.85	1.78	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.82	2.18	2.10	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.20	3.19	2.95	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.31	1.46	1.44	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.86	2.84	2.63	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.54	1.54	1.52	1.46
Both teams to score · No	1.95	2.35	2.23	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	2.05	1.74	1.68	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.