Paide – Tammeka

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.79	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.36	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.96	−9.2%
Betfair (net)	4.13	−5.2%
bet365	3.80	−12.9%

€8 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.64	4.95	4.42	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.79	4.36	4.13	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.48	1.76	1.72	1.61
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.71	1.53	1.47	1.41
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.40	2.88	2.55	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.78	2.30	2.18	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.56	1.77	1.65	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	1.98	2.29	2.14	2.05
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	2.02	1.78	1.71	1.62
Both teams to score · No	2.03	2.76	2.42	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	1.98	1.57	1.48	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.