Parnu JK Vaprus – Kalju

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.57	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.65	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.22	−9.3%
Betfair (net)	4.52	−2.9%
bet365	4.10	−11.8%

€26 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.90	1.74	1.67	1.53
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.57	4.65	4.51	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.91	4.76	4.51	4.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.96	1.55	1.52	1.47
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.04	2.83	2.67	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.46	2.40	2.28	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.41	1.71	1.68	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.47	2.35	2.16	2.05
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.68	1.74	1.72	1.62
Both teams to score · No	2.07	2.66	2.42	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.94	1.60	1.59	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.