Kuressaare – Flora

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · full time 2-0 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.64	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.13	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.62	−10.0%
Betfair (net)	4.61	−10.2%
bet365	—	—

€31 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.58	1.70	1.67	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.22	4.59	4.42	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.64	5.13	4.61	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.78	1.54	1.49	1.47
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.27	2.84	2.73	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.97	2.38	2.23	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.51	1.73	1.68	1.58
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.78	2.17	2.12	2.10
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.56	1.86	1.75	1.63
Both teams to score · No	2.06	2.63	2.50	2.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.94	1.61	1.58	1.54

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.