Bohemians – Mlada Boleslav

Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.85	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.17	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.10	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	2.06	−4.8%
bet365	1.96	−9.6%

€96 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.78	3.41	3.33	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.45	4.08	3.80	3.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.85	2.17	2.06	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.21	1.57	1.56	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.82	2.75	2.56	2.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.18	2.49	2.44	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.31	1.67	1.61	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.28	2.41	2.29	2.15
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.71	1.67	1.57
Both teams to score · No	2.06	2.92	2.60	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	1.94	1.52	1.55	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.