Burgos CF – Granada CF

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 14:15 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.81	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.15	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.05	−3.3%
Betfair (net)	3.04	−3.5%
bet365	2.82	−10.6%

€2154 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.81	3.15	3.04	2.82
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.49	3.22	3.09	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.22	2.69	2.56	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.61	2.50	2.33	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.62	1.67	1.65	1.53
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.41	5.08	4.51	4.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.23	1.25	1.25	1.19
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.98	3.79	3.52	3.40
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.50	1.36	1.34	1.27
Both teams to score · No	1.78	1.94	1.93	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.27	2.07	1.93	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.