Burgos CF vs Granada CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · 16:15 CET
WWWLL
DLLWWThe score model made a Burgos CF win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.30 – 0.92 Granada CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos CF win | 45.1% | 37.0% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 30.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Granada CF win | 26.2% | 32.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 43.2% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 23.7% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 50.4% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 29.8% | +3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burgos CF 55.2 / Granada CF 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.