Andorra – Castellon

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.45	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.38	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.32	−2.6%
Betfair (net)	2.31	−3.0%
bet365	2.20	−7.6%

€155 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.45	2.38	2.31	2.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.98	3.50	3.42	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.94	3.39	3.19	3.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.79	1.78	—	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.26	2.28	—	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.00	2.96	—	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.50	1.51	—	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.25	2.80	—	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.56	—	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.44	2.69	—	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.59	—	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.