Andorra vs Castellon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 14:00 CET
LLWDW
WWWDLThe score model made a Castellon win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.38 – 1.53 Castellon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 34.0% | 30.9% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Castellon win | 40.8% | 41.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 56.4% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 36.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 60.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 38.7% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Andorra 42.9 / Castellon 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.