Almeria – Leganes

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:15 UTC · full time 3-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.71	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.81	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.77	−2.1%
Betfair (net)	1.78	−1.9%
bet365	1.68	−7.3%

€2442 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.42	5.18	4.89	5.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.33	3.92	3.71	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.71	1.81	1.78	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.93	1.95	1.91	1.83
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.08	2.05	1.98	1.88
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.37	3.46	3.28	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.42	1.41	1.38	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.25	2.97	2.79	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.51	1.49	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.03	2.11	2.06	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	1.97	1.90	1.84	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.