Almeria vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 16:15 CET
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LWLLLThe score model made an Almeria win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almeria 1.83 – 0.92 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 58.5% | 57.7% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Leganes win | 18.4% | 18.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 54.2% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.3% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 53.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.4% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Almeria 49.6 / Leganes 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.