Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld

2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.26	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.08	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.04	−1.9%
Betfair (net)	2.03	−2.5%
bet365	2.01	−3.4%

€1773 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.35	3.99	3.71	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.88	3.73	3.56	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.26	2.08	2.03	2.01
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.90	1.83	1.79	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.11	2.21	2.12	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.29	3.08	2.98	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.44	1.48	1.44	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.41	2.83	2.60	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.71	1.55	1.54	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.28	2.46	2.31	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.78	1.68	1.66	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.