Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 13:30 CET
LLDWW
WWLWWThe score model made a Bochum win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bochum 1.55 – 1.23 Arminia Bielefeld.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 44.3% | 41.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Arminia Bielefeld win | 29.9% | 32.4% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 56.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 36.4% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 60.2% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bochum 25.6 / Arminia Bielefeld 27.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.