St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 2-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.86	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.11	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.86	−4.9%
Betfair (net)	4.89	−4.2%
bet365	4.33	−15.3%

€649 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.86	5.11	4.89	4.33
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.49	4.33	4.13	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.75	1.74	1.68	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.68	1.66	1.61	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.47	2.51	2.44	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.69	2.62	2.54	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.59	1.62	1.56	1.54
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.46	2.52	2.35	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.69	1.66	1.64	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.38	2.50	2.33	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.72	1.67	1.66	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.