St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 13:30 CET
WDDLL
LWLWLThe score model made a St. Pauli win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli 1.98 – 1.11 Karlsruher SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli win | 57.2% | 54.9% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 22.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Karlsruher SC win | 20.6% | 22.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 65.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.5% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 63.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 42.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli 12.4 / Karlsruher SC 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.