Malmo FF – Kalmar

Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.54	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.89	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.84	−2.4%
Betfair (net)	1.85	−2.1%
bet365	1.76	−6.7%

€167 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.67	4.58	4.33	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.94	3.98	3.80	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.54	1.89	1.84	1.76
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.77	1.86	1.81	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.30	2.16	2.08	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.93	3.22	3.09	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.52	1.45	1.42	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.33	2.91	2.67	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.75	1.52	1.50	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.05	2.28	2.18	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	1.95	1.78	1.73	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.