Malmo FF vs Kalmar
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
WDWLW
LLLLLThe score model made a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.07 – 0.88 Kalmar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 64.8% | 55.7% | +9.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 23.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Kalmar win | 15.0% | 20.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 54.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 33.8% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 54.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 37.1% | +5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 40.6 / Kalmar 28 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.