Royale Union SG – Leuven

Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.33	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.26	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.24	−1.7%
Betfair (net)	1.25	−1.1%
bet365	1.22	−3.3%

€3376 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	14.56	15.75	14.30	9.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.61	6.96	6.32	5.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.33	1.26	1.25	1.22
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.99	1.54	1.52	1.44
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.01	2.85	2.69	2.60
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.54	2.43	2.29	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.39	1.70	1.67	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.54	2.27	2.18	2.05
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.39	1.78	1.73	1.62
Both teams to score · No	1.56	1.88	1.85	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.77	2.13	2.01	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.