Royale Union SG vs Leuven
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-11 · 16:00 CET
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LLDWDThe score model made a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 75%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Royale Union SG 2.17 – 0.51 Leuven.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union SG win | 75.3% | 75.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.8% | 15.9% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Leuven win | 6.9% | 9.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 64.1% | -13.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 42.9% | -14.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.1% | 49.3% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 44.3% | -16.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Royale Union SG 44.3 / Leuven 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.