Excelsior – Groningen

Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:45 UTC · full time 1-5 (HT 1-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.67	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.72	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.47	−6.7%
Betfair (net)	3.47	−6.7%
bet365	3.60	−3.3%

€4 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.13	2.55	2.44	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.67	3.72	3.47	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.45	2.94	2.77	2.75
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.84	1.62	1.57	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.19	2.62	2.44	2.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.12	2.56	2.41	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.47	1.64	1.57	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.51	2.43	2.23	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.66	1.70	1.59	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.42	2.95	2.67	2.57
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.51	1.45	1.41

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.