Excelsior vs Groningen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-11 · 16:45 CET
WWDLD
LLDDWThe score model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.1% vs 59.1% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.53 – 1.32 Groningen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 40.9% | 36.9% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.0% | +1.3% |
| Groningen win | 31.9% | 37.2% | -5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 60.9% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 40.9% | -9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 63.6% | -5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.8% | 42.3% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Excelsior 33.9 / Groningen 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.