Utrecht – Willem II

Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 10:15 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.51	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.55	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.52	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.54	−0.4%
bet365	1.47	−5.0%

€226 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	7.62	6.78	5.94	5.75
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.83	4.85	4.51	4.33
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.51	1.55	1.54	1.47
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.67	1.49	1.45	1.37
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.50	3.04	2.98	2.87
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.66	2.22	2.10	1.97
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.60	1.82	1.79	1.69
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.16	2.26	2.10	1.97
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.46	1.79	1.79	1.69
Both teams to score · No	2.16	2.63	2.56	2.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.86	1.61	1.56	1.54

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.