Utrecht vs Willem II
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-11 · 12:15 CET
DLDWL
DLDLLThe score model makes an Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.4% vs 55.8% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Utrecht 2.20 – 0.90 Willem II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 66.1% | 63.0% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 20.6% | +0.1% |
| Willem II win | 13.1% | 16.3% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 64.4% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.5% | 44.0% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 59.6% | -6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 44.2% | -12.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Utrecht 44.8 / Willem II 20.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.