Motherwell – Celtic

Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.18	ref
Pinnacle fair	6.05	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.63	−7.0%
Betfair (net)	5.46	−9.7%
bet365	5.25	−13.3%

€91 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-76 min	4 min	+4.4%	€150	5.94	−1.9%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.91	1.57	1.56	1.46	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.20	5.04	4.80	4.75	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.18	6.05	5.46	5.25	4
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.83	1.50	1.47	1.41	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.20	3.01	2.90	2.70	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.11	2.28	2.19	2.05	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.48	1.78	1.73	1.68	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.77	2.25	2.12	2.10	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.56	1.80	1.76	1.63	0
Both teams to score · No	2.25	2.57	2.48	2.25	0
Both teams to score · Yes	1.80	1.64	1.58	1.54	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.