Motherwell vs Celtic
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 CET
DWLLL
WWWWLThe score model makes a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.6% vs 55.5% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motherwell 1.11 – 1.76 Celtic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 23.6% | 19.7% | +3.9% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 21.4% | +2.5% |
| Celtic win | 52.5% | 58.9% | -6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 65.5% | -10.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 44.5% | -12.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 61.8% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 44.2% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motherwell 45.2 / Celtic 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.