Sassuolo – AC Milan

Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.97	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.97	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.93	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.94	−1.5%
bet365	—	—

€5132 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.97	1.97	1.94	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.17	3.82	3.61	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.95	4.34	4.04	4.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.83	1.70	1.66	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.21	2.43	2.35	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.09	2.73	2.63	2.57
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.48	1.58	1.54	1.46
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.35	2.61	2.46	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.43	1.62	1.58	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.28	2.64	2.54	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.78	1.61	1.58	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.