Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 18:00 CET
LWDWL
WWDDWThe score model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.0% vs 64.5% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.14 – 1.73 AC Milan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 25.0% | 22.4% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.6% | -1.7% |
| AC Milan win | 51.0% | 52.0% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 52.6% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 31.9% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.7% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 35.5% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sassuolo 35.9 / AC Milan 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.