Cagliari – Juventus

Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.78	ref
Pinnacle fair	7.21	ruler
Pinnacle offered	6.75	−6.4%
Betfair (net)	7.27	+0.9%
bet365	7.00	−2.9%

€96 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.90	1.61	1.59	1.51
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.79	4.14	3.80	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.78	7.21	7.27	7.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.41	2.21	2.13	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.71	1.83	1.79	1.76
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.77	4.24	3.96	3.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.26	1.31	1.29	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.10	3.26	3.04	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.32	1.44	1.42	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.80	1.82	1.79	1.66
Both teams to score · Yes	2.26	2.22	2.12	2.01

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.