Cagliari vs Juventus
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 20:45 CET
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WWDLWThe score model makes a Juventus win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 75.3% vs 67.7% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cagliari 0.84 – 1.51 Juventus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 20.8% | 15.3% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 24.3% | +2.0% |
| Juventus win | 53.0% | 60.4% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 47.5% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 27.6% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 46.4% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 32.3% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cagliari 45 / Juventus 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.