Atalanta – Venezia

Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.40	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.61	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.59	−1.5%
Betfair (net)	1.57	−2.7%
bet365	1.53	−5.1%

€2740 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	9.68	6.10	5.75	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.53	4.63	4.33	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.40	1.61	1.57	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.77	1.64	1.59	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.30	2.55	2.50	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.94	2.60	2.55	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.52	1.62	1.58	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.11	2.50	2.33	2.15
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.47	1.67	1.67	1.57
Both teams to score · No	1.85	2.39	2.31	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	2.18	1.72	1.67	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.