Atalanta vs Venezia
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-12 · 18:30 CET
WWLLL
LLLLLThe score model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 54.0% vs 41.4% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atalanta 2.21 – 0.73 Venezia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 71.2% | 59.5% | +11.7% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 22.7% | -4.7% |
| Venezia win | 10.8% | 17.8% | -7.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 60.5% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 40.4% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 58.6% | -12.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 40.9% | -9.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atalanta 47.5 / Venezia 16.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.